Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 5

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Editor’s Note: This season, John Daigle will be writing Matchups for one afternoon game, SNF, and MNF. For these games, Evan Silva is also providing his notes to incorporate into the column.

TB @ ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | CAR @ CHI | BAL @ CIN | MIA @ NE | CLE @ WAS | IND @ JAX | BUF @ HOU | LV @ DEN | ARI @ SF | GB @ LAR | NYG @ SEA | DAL @ PIT | NO @ KC

Thursday Night Football

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Team Totals: Falcons 22.5, Bucs 21

Fantasy’s QB2 (vs. WAS), QB5 (@ DET), QB27 (vs. DEN), and QB3 (vs. PHI) scorer in Weeks 1-4, Baker Mayfield now visits Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz dome to face HC Raheem Morris’ overachieving Falcons defense, which has held enemy passers to the NFL’s seventh-fewest yards per attempt (6.2) and is one of the healthiest units in the league. In what doesn’t profile as a particularly high-scoring affair, Mayfield is a fringe QB1/2. … The Bucs’ backfield should be considered a near-50/50 split after Bucky Irving handled 11 touches compared to Rachaad White’s 12 in Week 4’s win over Philadelphia, and failed feature back White logged 58% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps, his lowest playing-time share since 2022. On the season, Irving is averaging 5.8 yards per carry versus White’s lowly 2.8 clip. Atlanta’s loss of every-down MLB Trey Andersen (knee) improves Thursday night’s matchup for both White and Irving. Tackle machine Andersen was Week 4’s NFC Defensive Player of the Week. Entrenched in an RBBC, White and Irving remain questionable-ceiling flex options in season-long leagues and probably touchdown-dependent dice rolls in single-game DFS.

Mayfield’s Weeks 1-4 targets: Chris Godwin 34; Mike Evans 29; Cade Otton 21; White 16; Irving 8; Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan 6; Sterling Shepard 5. … Godwin enters Week 5 ranked No. 7 among wideouts in targets, No. 3 in receptions (27), and No. 6 in yards (322). He’s far beyond having earned matchup-agnostic WR1/2 valuation. … Evans appeared on Week 5’s injury report with early-week knee and calf injuries and will likely draw frequent Thursday night coverage from Falcons top CB A.J. Terrell. I’m still locking in Evans as an upside WR2 but monitoring his rest-of-week practice participation. Evans’ Week 4 TD catch against the Eagles placed him 12th on the NFL’s all-time receiving touchdown list (97). He deserves to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. … With No. 3 WR Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and No. 4 WR Trey Palmer (concussion) ruled out for Thursday night, Sterling Shepard is a big-time single-game DFS sleeper. A college monster with Mayfield in 2015 at Oklahoma, Shepard quietly logged a 65% snap rate and five targets in Week 4’s victory. … Otton rarely leaves the field and has collected a combined 17 targets over the past two weeks due to injuries to Bucs sub-package WRs. Otton is a low-upside but viable opportunity-based streamer at fantasy’s weakest position.

Still obviously limited by last October’s Achilles tear, Kirk Cousins enters Week 5 having finished as fantasy’s QB24 or worse in three of his first four games while amassing -2 rushing yards in Weeks 1-4. Bucs HC Todd Bowles’ defense has limited enemy passing offenses to the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per attempt (6.0) and one touchdown pass one month in. This is not an exciting spot to stream Cousins. … Bijan Robinson’s health is fairly concerning after he popped up on Week 4’s injury report with a shoulder injury, logged season lows in touches (11) and playing time (64%) against New Orleans, then appeared on Week 5’s injury report with a hamstring ailment. As Tyler Allgeier is averaging 6.1 yards per carry with a 63% rushing Success Rate versus Bijan’s 4.1 and 51% marks, Allgeier very arguably warrants more work, especially on this short week. I’m keeping Robinson stapled into season-long-league lineups but upgrading Allgeier into flex-viable territory against a Bucs defense missing starting DT Calijah Kancey (calf) and ILB SirVocea Dennis (shoulder, I.R.).

Cousins’ Weeks 1-4 target distribution: Drake London 31; Darnell Mooney 24; Ray-Ray McCloud 22; Robinson 16; Kyle Pitts 15; Allgeier 3. … London has racked up six catches in three straight games and tagged Bowles’ secondary for receiving lines of 10/172/0, 6/54/0, and 6/120/0 in their last three meetings. London warrants low-end WR1 treatment here. … Showing strong on-field chemistry with Cousins, Mooney leads Atlanta in receiving yards (225) and is tied with London for first-down catches (9). Mooney is WR3/flex playable in Thursday night’s indoors environment. … McCloud appeared on nearly 100% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps in Weeks 2-4. He’s a single-game DFS tournament dart. … Fresh off Week 4’s goose egg, Pitts’ participation in the Falcons’ offense has lessened in each game. Going back to last season, Pitts has drawn five targets or fewer in eight straight appearances.

Score Prediction: Bucs 24, Falcons 23

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Sunday 9:30 AM ET Game (London)

N.Y. Jets @ Minnesota

Team Totals: Jets 19, Vikings 21.5

Aaron Rodgers said he has a “swollen knee” before the team’s flight across the pond after taking 14 hits and five sacks in New York’s 10-9 upset loss to Denver in a rain-soaked affair. The 40-year-old’s mobility is in question against Vikings DC Brian Flores’ blitzkrieg play-calling, sending the house at the league’s highest rate. Rodgers himself has completed 63% (20th) of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt (23rd) against the blitz in 2024 as a fringe QB2. … Despite (justifiable) panic from Breece Hall’s managers after fourth-round rookie Braelon Allen (6-foot-1/235) out-performed Hall (12/18/0) from scrimmage (9/46/0), Breece had encouragingly scored 18 PPR points with 5+ targets in all three starts before Week 4. Third in target share (16.9%) at his position, Hall has multiple outs as a buy-low top-10 RB against a stout Vikings front seven that’s only leaked 70+ rushing yards in three of their last 19 games. With zero touches inside the 10-yard line, Allen is a thin RB3.

The WR44 in per-week points, Garrett Wilson’s career-low 8.9-yard depth of target has been a hindrance for his ceiling, averaging 0.99 Yards Per Route Run (59th) as an outlet against zone coverage — Flores has notably schemed zone at the NFL’s sixth-highest rate (77.6%). Wilson’s team-high 25% target share and nine red-zone targets leave the light on as a WR2. … Excluding Week 1 when Allen Lazard scored two touchdowns on an offsides free-play and in garbage time from Tyrod Taylor, he’s merely been targeted on 16% of his routes (eighth among teammates) with as many raw targets (15) as Tyler Conklin. I can’t imagine starting him outside of 14-team leagues. Cody Main will have a better idea of whether Lazard offers an edge in showdown in his Showdown Breakdown piece. … Brought along slowly with eight routes (19%) in the season opener, Big Mike Williams has since participated on 66% of New York’s dropbacks as their de facto WR3 the past three weeks. I prefer BMW (on lesser usage) to Lazard in a vacuum for the former’s 13.0-yard aDOT and 20% share of the team’s Air Yards in that span. … Ace special-teamer Xavier Gipson has maxed out at 10 routes in each game since Week 2 (with 22 total receiving yards) to make room for Williams. … Conklin’s emergence with an 18.5% target share since Week 3 pops against a Vikings linebackers room that’s permitted the fifth-most weekly points at his position. From an on-field lens, only Colby Parkinson (81%) and Trey McBride (79%) have registered a higher route rate than Conklin (77%) to date. For what it’s worth, one of Jeremy Ruckert’s seven targets on the season was earned inside the end zone.

Sam Darnold’s MVP odds (+800) at DraftKings Sportsbook have since surged to mirror Lamar Jackson’s and C.J. Stroud’s. Darnold enters this #RevengeGame with a league-high 11 passing touchdowns and (unsustainable) 10.4% TD rate opposite an airtight Jets secondary that even limited Brock Purdy to his worst finish (QB24) to date. Darnold is more intriguing for one-game slates than 1-QB leagues in Week 5. … Aaron Jones’ share of backfield touches has increased in every game, most recently out-snapping Ty Chandler 56 to 8 for an 87% share against the Packers. New York has quietly permitted the league’s third-most yards after contact per attempt (2.67) and sixth-worst Success Rate (43.9%) from the ground, cementing Jones as a top-five RB in another juicy spot. Chandler is merely a stash at this time and has been jostled in our One Injury Away list for it.

Justin Jefferson’s last duel against HC Robert Saleh (Week 13 of 2022) resulted in a 33.3% target share for 7/45/1 receiving. New York has not allowed a single WR to reach 70 yards in seven consecutive games, but Jefferson’s team-high 27.4% target share (with a touchdown in each performance) keeps him entrenched as a no-brainer WR1. … You wouldn’t know Jordan Addison suffered an ankle injury in Week 1, succinctly start-stopping on the second-most routes (86%) for the Vikings with a 14.8% target share for 4/79/2 (including one rushing score) from scrimmage. Consider him a locked-in WR3/FLEX weekly (who’s undeterred by this negative on-paper matchup). … Jalen Nailor’s two performances with Addison resulted in forgettable 4.3% and 7.4% target shares. An interesting touchdown-or-bust option for his volatility on one-game slates, Nailor can be dropped in 12-/14-team leagues. Brandon Powell ran four more routes than Nailor (16 to 12) in Week 4 but has yet to earn more than two targets in any game. … Josh Oliver’s route participation increased to a season-high 39% mark against the Packers in what was, through two quarters, a blowout; Johnny Mundt ran a route on 75% of Minnesota’s dropbacks in the first half (to help build their four-score lead) and has yet to dip below 60% in any game. Mundt is the clear choice between the two for showdown.

Score Prediction: Vikings 24, Jets 17

Carolina @ Chicago

Team Totals: Bears 22.5, Panthers 19

Even after breathing life into Carolina’s offense over the past two weeks, Andy Dalton is a tough sell in any format at Soldier Field facing a Bears defense permitting the NFL’s third-fewest fantasy QB points. … After logging Weeks 3-4 touch counts of 22 and 26 and a year-high 74% snap rate in last Sunday’s loss to Cincinnati, workhorse Chuba Hubbard is a volume-driven RB2 play at Chicago. HC Matt Eberflus’ defense has been more vulnerable on the ground than in the air, yielding a combined 88/409/5 (4.6 YPC) rushing line to enemy running backs. … With Adam Thielen (hamstring) on I.R., the Panthers trotted out Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette as their top perimeter receivers with Jonathan Mingo in the big slot role against the Bengals. Although his Week 5 draw is imposing versus Bears stud CBs Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson, Diontae turned 27 targets into stat lines of 8/122/1 and 7/83/1 in Dalton’s initial two starts and warrants WR2/3 valuation at worst. … Because Legette is manufactured touches and even involved in the run game, his individual matchup is less impacted by coverage. After playing 61 of 70 offensive snaps and seeing a 25% target share in Week 4, the first-round rookie is a modest-upside WR4/flex option here. … Through 19 career games, Mingo has scored zero touchdowns and cleared 70 yards once. … Panthers No. 1 TE Tommy Tremble drew zero targets on 33 routes run in Week 4.

Favored at home coming off his season-best game, this is a spot for D’Andre Swift to build on Week 4’s breakout against a Panthers defense that already sent team-best player DT Derrick Brown (knee) to I.R., then lost top LB Shaq Thompson (Achilles) for the year, and won’t have every-down LB Josey Jewell (groin/hamstring) against the Bears. In last Sunday’s win over the Rams, OC Shane Waldron pared Chicago’s backfield down to a two-man committee that eliminated Khalil Herbert and featured Swift for 23 touches en route to 165 total yards and a touchdown. Roschon Johnson (seven touches) was promoted to No. 2. Swift is an upside RB2 play. Johnson remains a bench stash. … Caleb Williams has made incremental strides each week but doesn’t yet warrant trustworthy QB1 valuation in a Bears offense still trying to figure things out. Sunday’s contest projects as fairly low-scoring, while Williams is averaging a largely innocuous 19.7 rushing yards per game.

Williams’ Weeks 1-4 targets: D.J. Moore 34; Rome Odunze 23; Cole Kmet 20; Swift 17; Keenan Allen 14; Roschon and Gerald Everett 5. … This is a #RevengeGame for Moore against his former team. Carolina’s secondary has been dusted by fellow WRs Tre Tucker (7/96/1), Ja’Marr Chase (3/85/1), Rashid Shaheed (3/73/1), Jakobi Meyers (7/62/1), Tee Higgins (6/60/0), and Quentin Johnston (5/51/2). Moore is a locked-in WR2. … Despite Allen’s (heel) return, Odunze continued to operate as Chicago’s No. 2 wideout against the Rams and deserves WR3/flex consideration in Sunday’s plus spot. … We’ve seen nothing positive from 32-year-old, potentially overweight Allen dating back to preseason. … Kmet has moved far ahead of Everett as the Bears’ go-to tight end, in Week 4 running 20 routes versus Everett’s four. Williams has been efficient when throwing to Kmet, connecting on 18 of 20 targets (90%). Carolina has yielded the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Bears 24, Panthers 17

Baltimore @ Cincinnati

Team Totals: Ravens 26.5, Bengals 23.5

I bet the over on Ravens-Bengals with both offenses humming; Baltimore scored 63 points over the past two weeks against Dallas and Buffalo’s respected defenses, while Cincinnati banked point totals of 25 (@ KC), 33 (vs. WAS), and 34 (@ CAR) in Weeks 2-4. In last year’s two meetings with Bengals DC Lou Anarumo’s defense, Lamar Jackson went a sterling 40-of-59 passing (68%) for 501 yards (8.5 YPA), a 4:0 TD-to-INT ratio, and 108 rushing yards. In this possible shootout, Jackson is a shoo-in top-three QB1 play. … Badly hurting up front, the Bengals are nursing injuries to starting DTs B.J. Hill (hamstring) and Sheldon Rankins (hamstring) plus top EDGE Trey Hendrickson (stinger). On-fire Derrick Henry netted a combined 49/350/3 (7.1 YPC) rushing line plus a receiving touchdown over the Ravens’ last two games. … Passing-down/change-of-pace back Justice Hill is averaging nine touches for almost 60 yards per game while playing 47% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps. Hill is a justifiable RB3/flex starter in full-PPR leagues in what sets up as a back-and-forth affair.

Jackson’s Weeks 1-4 target distribution: Zay Flowers 27; Hill and Isaiah Likely 18; Rashod Bateman 14; Mark Andrews 9; Nelson Agholor 8; Henry 6. … Last year’s Bengals limited Flowers to receiving lines of 4/62/0 and 3/43/0, while Flowers has cleared 40 yards in one of four games this season. Flowers belongs on the WR3/flex fringe. … Likely is averaging just 18.7 yards in three games since his big 2024 opener. … Bateman has drawn five targets or fewer in all four contests. Cincinnati has been middling in terms of wideout production allowed. … Andrews played just 33% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps in Week 3, then 45% in Week 4. In last Sunday night’s win over Buffalo, Andrews dropped his lone target. He is not startable.

Fantasy’s QB7 (@ KC), QB7 (vs. WAS), and QB11 (@ CAR) over the past three weeks, Joe Burrow warrants mid-range QB1 treatment with his supporting cast at full strength in a projected high-scoring affair. Baltimore is allowing the NFL’s eighth-most yards per pass attempt (7.6) and third-most passing yards per game (282). … Zack Moss is playing more snaps because he’s Cincinnati’s designated pass-protection back, but a near-50/50 split in terms of touches with Chase Brown should be expected moving forward. Obviously more explosive, Brown is averaging 6.3 yards per carry and 6.0 yards per touch compared to Moss’ 3.9 and 4.7 clips but lacks Moss’ down-to-down reliability. I’m still optimistic Brown can emerge as a fantasy starter by midseason. Both are RB2/flex options versus Baltimore.

Burrow’s 2024 target distribution: Ja’Marr Chase 24; Mike Gesicki 19; Andre Iosivas 18; Tee Higgins 16; Moss 15; Erick All 12; Brown 9; Trenton Irwin 8. … Fantasy’s overall WR4 over the past two weeks, Chase is an obvious WR1 play against a Ravens secondary that coughed up stat lines of 9/110/1 (Davante Adams) and 7/103/0 (Rashee Rice) to fellow No. 1 wideouts within the first four weeks. Role-player-type WRs KaVontae Turpin (3/51/1), Xavier Worthy (2/47/1), and Jalen Tolbert (3/42/1) have also delivered above-expectation results against Baltimore. … Tight ends in particular have tagged Baltimore early, namely Brock Bowers (9/98/0), Jake Ferguson (6/95/0), Dalton Kincaid (5/47/0), and Noah Gray (3/37/0). All is a legit streamer after out-snapping Gesicki and Drew Sample in Week 4.

Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Ravens 24

Miami @ New England

Team Totals: Patriots 18, Dolphins 17

With Tua Tagovailoa (concussions, I.R.) sidelined until at least Week 8, the Dolphins will trot out Tyler Huntley with LT Terron Armstead (concussion) in question after Huntley pathetically managed 4.4 yards per pass attempt and didn’t lead a touchdown drive until the fourth quarter of Week 4’s blowout home loss to Tennessee. It’s a green-light spot for New England’s D/ST. … Raheem Mostert’s (chest) expected return figures to turn the Fins’ backfield into a three-way RBBC also involving De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright. Achane is the lone fantasy-playable member of this committee, but expectations should be curbed in Week 5’s second-lowest-totaled affair. … With Huntley under center in Week 4, no Dolphin exceeded 36 receiving yards. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are dice-roll WR3s.

Miami’s D/ST is likewise playable against Jacoby Brissett, who took 11 combined sacks in Weeks 3-4 and engineers an offense averaging 13.0 points per game, second fewest in the league. … Patriots HC Jerod Mayo opened New England’s backfield to competition after Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled in each of the first four games. Similarly mistake-prone Antonio Gibson is technically the next man up, yet New England’s loss of stud C David Andrews (shoulder) all but eliminates the Pats’ chances of trotting out competent O-Line play. Stevenson and Gibson are both unsafe-floor flex options versus Miami. … The Pats’ current three-receiver set involves Ja’Lynn Polk, K.J. Osborn, and Pop Douglas, although none of them have produced to date, and Kendrick Bourne (ACL) can come off reserve/PUP this week. … Hunter Henry is scoreless on the year with 20 yards or fewer in three of four games.

Score Prediction: Patriots 13, Dolphins 6

Cleveland @ Washington

Team Totals: Commanders 23.5, Browns 20

With LT Jedrick Wills (knee), RT Jack Conklin (hamstring), and TE David Njoku (ankle) all on track for Week 5 return, this sets up as Deshaun Watson’s best-case slump-busting scenario against a Washington defense permitting the NFL’s fourth-most yards per pass attempt (7.9) and a 10:0 TD-to-INT ratio. Uncomfortable and unconfident to this point, this should be a do-or-die situation for Watson with Jameis Winston waiting in the wings. … Jerome Ford controlled Cleveland’s Week 4 backfield, out-snapping D’Onta Foreman 46 to 13 and out-touching him 17 to 5 against the Raiders. Nick Chubb (knee, reserve/PUP) began practicing this week but remains weeks away from a potential return. Enemy running backs have clapped Washington for 5.2 yards per carry and 163.5 total yards per game. Ford is an underrated RB2 starter with the health of Cleveland’s offensive line improving.

Watson’s Weeks 1-4 targets: Amari Cooper 37; Jerry Jeudy 30; Ford 20; Elijah Moore 18; Jordan Akins 14; Njoku 5. … Off to a miserably inefficient start, Cooper has lost multiple big plays to penalty, including a would-be 82-yard touchdown near the end of Week 4. This is an eruption spot against a Commanders secondary that got smoked by fellow WRs Malik Nabers (10/127/1), Ja’Marr Chase (6/118/2), Chris Godwin (8/83/1), Mike Evans (5/61/2), Andrei Iosivas (5/52/1), and Marvin Harrison Jr. (5/45/1) in Weeks 1-4. … Jeudy hasn’t topped 81 yards in 20 straight games, hitting paydirt just three times during that span. … Njoku saw five targets for 4/44/0 receiving on 28 snaps before Week 1’s high ankle sprain. He averaged 61 snaps per game in 2023. Njoku should be plugged right back in as a TE1.

The Commanders have won three in a row and combined to score 80 points over their last two games. Jayden Daniels is a massive early favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, completing an absurd 82% of his passes with the NFL’s third-highest passer rating (107.4). Among QBs, only Lamar Jackson has rushed for more yards. A spitting image of Randall Cunningham, Daniels deserves matchup-agnostic QB1 treatment. … As Brian Robinson Jr. (knee) appears unlikely to face Cleveland, Washington’s backfield figures to revolve around Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols, passing-down type RBs whose promotions may encourage OC Kliff Kingsbury to lean on the pass more than usual sans between-the-tackles grinder Robinson. I’m projecting a 60/40 split favoring Ekeler against the Browns.

Daniels’ 2024 targets: Terry McLaurin 28; Zach Ertz 18; Olamide Zaccheaus 12; Robinson 11; Noah Brown 10; Ekeler 9; Luke McCaffrey and Dyami Brown 7. … Seeing a league-high 57% of Washington’s Air Yards, McLaurin is averaging eight targets over the Commanders’ last three games and banked stat lines of 4/100/1 and 7/52/1 in Weeks 3 and 4. This is not a friendly matchup, but McLaurin has earned WR2/3 valuation. … Brown and McCaffrey ran as Washington’s Nos. 2-3 wideouts in Week 4. Zaccheaus was No. 4. It’s an ultimately statistically unreliable rotation behind McLaurin. … 34-year-old Ertz has scored one TD over his last 12 games. He hasn’t topped 62 receiving yards in a game since October of 2022.

Score Prediction: Commanders 21, Browns 20

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Team Totals: Jaguars 24.5, Colts 21.5

Sans Anthony Richardson (hip/abdomen/oblique), the Colts will trot out 39-year-old Joe Flacco against a Jaguars defense yielding the league’s third-most yards per pass attempt (8.0) and a 7:0 TD-to-INT pass ratio. Only the Ravens have allowed more 20+ yard pass connections (18) than Jacksonville. Flacco lacks rushing equity but can stack completions. … Jonathan Taylor’s (ankle) absence thrusts plodder Trey Sermon into No. 1 running back duties with 197-pound burner Tyler Goodson next in line for work. The Colts risk missing C Ryan Kelly (neck) and RT Braden Smith (knee) here; Sermon is a low-floor RB2/flex option.

Flacco’s Week 4 targets: Josh Downs 8; Michael Pittman Jr. 6; A.D. Mitchell 3; Alec Pierce 2. … Slot man Downs was Flacco’s go-to guy in last week’s win over Pittsburgh, leading the Colts in receiving (7/71/1) on Flacco’s throws. He’s worth WR3/4 consideration with a pure pocket passer at the helm. … Pittman’s last four stat lines against the Jaguars are 9/109/0, 8/97/1, 13/134/0, and 6/64/1. … No Colts ancillary pass catchers warrant fantasy attention.

Trevor Lawrence enters Week 5 having managed Weeks 1-4 fantasy scores of QB21 (@ MIA), QB20 (vs. CLE), QB26 (@ BUF), and QB16 (@ HOU). Never a consistent plus-fantasy producer, Lawrence is a borderline two-quarterback-league play. … Travis Etienne out-snapped Tank Bigsby 30 to 17 in Week 4’s loss to Houston while Bigsby outgained Etienne 90 to 60 on five fewer touches. Running backs are carving Indy’s defense for 157 total yards per game. Etienne deserves high-end RB2 valuation, while Bigsby is a high-risk flex.

Lawrence’s 2024 targets: Christian Kirk 26; Brian Thomas Jr. 25; Gabe Davis 21; Etienne 15; Brenton Strange 14. … An inexplicable ghost in Weeks 1-2, Kirk banked PPR-friendly stat lines of 8/79/0 and 7/61/1 in Weeks 3-4. Running over 80% of his routes inside, Kirk’s Week 5 matchup is enhanced by Colts slot CB Kenny Moore’s (hip) absence. … Jags first-round pick Thomas has flashed special early-career signs and offers eruption potential against an Indianapolis defense that’s been cooked by fellow outside WRs Nico Collins (6/117/0), George Pickens (7/113/0), Rome Odunze (6/112/1), and D.J. Moore (8/78/0). … Davis has been a scoreless non-fantasy factor since leaving the Bills for Jacksonville. … Evan Engram (questionable, hamstring) hasn’t played since Week 1, while fill-in TE Strange averaged a lowly 32 yards over Jacksonville’s last three games. This is a fantasy situation to avoid.

Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Colts 20

Buffalo @ Houston

Team Totals: Bills 24.5, Texans 23.5

Fantasy’s QB5 four weeks in, Josh Allen encounters a shootout opportunity in Houston’s NRG Stadium dome against a Texans defense that’s allowed the league’s third-most TD passes (8). Allen is always a smash candidate due to his elite dual-threat skills. … Nothing stands out positively about James Cook’s Week 5 draw, but he remains a bankable RB2 averaging 14.8 touches for 83.3 yards. I’m dropping Ray Davis in season-long leagues; at this point, he is clearly behind Cook and Ty Johnson on Buffalo’s running back depth chart.

Allen’s Weeks 1-4 targets: Khalil Shakir 19; Dalton Kincaid 18; Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins 11; Cook 10; Curtis Samuel 7; Johnson 6; Dawson Knox and Marquez Valdes-Scantling 5. … Shakir’s (ankle) likely absence figures to propel Samuel into three-receiver sets between Coleman and Hollins, giving Samuel DFS tournament sleeper appeal. … Kincaid ranks 12th among tight ends in targets, 13th in catches (13), and 13th in yards (132). He’s a fringe TE1/2 here. … Yet to top 51 yards in a 2024 game, Coleman is an obvious Week 5 avoid running routes at stout Texans outside CBs Derek Stingley and Kwame Lassiter.

C.J. Stroud draws a Bills defense hurting badly in the middle of the field, where WLB Matt Milano (torn biceps) is on I.R., MLB Terrel Bernard (torn pec) and slot CB Taron Johnson (broken forearm) are week to week, and FS Taylor Rapp (concussion) won’t play in Week 5. Additionally, EDGE Von Miller’s suspension kicked in for violating the league’s personal conduct policy, while the Texans are incentivized to raise their pass rate due to the unreliability of their backfield sans Joe Mixon (ankle). With Dare Ogunbowale and J.J. Taylor also in the mix for touches, Cam Akers is a fringe RB3/flex play versus Buffalo. Since Mixon went out in Week 1, Akers is averaging 10.4 touches for 39 yards per game.

Nico Collins enters Week 5 ranked No. 2 in the NFL in catches (30), No. 1 in receiving yards (489) by over 100, and No. 1 in 20+ yard receptions (7). Bills HC Sean McDermott’s defense is specifically designed to neuter big plays in the passing game, yet Collins has earned opponent-agnostic WR1 treatment. … This is a #RevengeGame for Stefon Diggs against his former team. Running over half of his routes in the slot, Diggs’ matchup would benefit from Johnson’s absence. … Tank Dell is expected to return from his bruised ribs versus Buffalo. Dell’s Week 5 matchup doesn’t stand out, but a Dell breakout game feels imminent after he played 65% of Houston’s offensive snaps in Weeks 1-3. … Dalton Schultz is scoreless in 2024 and hasn’t exceeded five targets in an individual game.

Score Prediction: Texans 24, Bills 23

Las Vegas @ Denver

Team Totals: Broncos 19, Raiders 16.5

The Broncos’ D/ST is a better Week 5 fantasy bet than any Raiders quarterback; Gardner Minshew is likely on a short leash, while DC Vance Joseph’s unit has yielded the NFL’s second-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.6) and ranks No. 2 in sacks (16). … Zamir White’s inefficiency and fumbles clear the way for Alexander Mattison to take over as Las Vegas’ primary back. Following Week 4’s win, HC Antonio Pierce conceded that Mattison “deserves more reps” and promised “he’ll get them.” The Broncos allowed point totals of 13 (vs. PIT), 7 (@ TB), and 9 (@ NYJ) in Weeks 2-4. Mattison is barely flex playable at Denver.

With Davante Adams (“hamstring”) in bubble wrap until he’s traded, the Raiders’ two-receiver set will consist of Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker with Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer at tight end. Possession-type WR Meyers did draw 19 combined targets across Weeks 3-4 but now risks catching Broncos CB Patrick Surtain’s shutdown coverage. Meyers hasn’t cleared 80 receiving yards in his last 18 games. He’s a low-floor WR4/flex option here. … In Weeks 3-4, diminutive playmaker Tucker turned 15 targets into 12/137/1 receiving with an additional rushing score. Tucker played a career-high 85% of Las Vegas’ offensive snaps last Sunday. A gadget type running high-percentage routes, Tucker should not see Surtain often. … Inactive in Week 4, Mayer’s return could actually be a positive for Bowers because Mayer is a superior blocker and Bowers spent much of last week chip-releasing against Myles Garrett and Co. I’m still going right back to Bowers as an elite TE1.

Denver’s roster doesn’t include a single surefire fantasy starter, ranking last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt (4.8) and bottom five in points per game (15.5). Bo Nix has taken every Broncos QB snap and ranks 22nd at his position in fantasy scoring. … Tyler Badie’s back injury cuts Denver’s backfield to a two-man ordeal of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin against a Raiders defense enemy RBs have lit up for 85/458/3 (5.4 YPC) rushing. Williams and McLaughlin are flex options. … Courtland Sutton leads the Broncos in catches and is averaging under four receptions a game. Box-score hope is minimal here.

Score Prediction: Raiders 14, Broncos 13

Arizona @ San Francisco

Team Totals: 49ers 28, Cardinals 21

A to-date fantasy disappointment with finishes of QB15 or worse in three of four starts, Kyler Murray now faces a 49ers defense that has played mediocre pass defense and appears likely to be without All-World ILB Fred Warner (ankle). The good news is Trey McBride (concussion) is due back and San Francisco should pour points all over Arizona’s defense, creating shootout and/or garbage-time scoring opportunities. I’m standing behind Murray as a fantasy QB1 here. … James Conner’s Week 5 matchup will improve if Warner joins DT Javon Hargrave (triceps, I.R.) on the shelf. Conner banked Weeks 1-4 touch counts of 19, 22, 10, and 19, although Emari Demercado’s usage could spike if Arizona falls far behind.

Murray’s 2024 target distribution: Marvin Harrison Jr. 28; Trey McBride 21; Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch 20; Conner and Elijah Higgins 7; Demercado 3. … Over his last three games, Harrison Jr. turned 25 targets into 14/239/4 (17.1 YPR) receiving, while fellow WRs Justin Jefferson (4/133/1), Tutu Atwell (4/93/0), Allen Lazard (6/89/2), Garrett Wilson (6/60/0), and Jalen Nailor (3/54/1) tagged San Francisco’s secondary in Weeks 1-4. … Warner’s absence would especially benefit McBride due to Warner’s cover skills in the middle of the field. McBride has drawn at least six targets in 13 of his last 14 appearances. … Wilson has yet to clear 65 yards in 2024 and has done so once over his last 13 games. … Dortch is scoreless on the year and has finished with fewer than 50 yards in all four weeks.

Brock Purdy would be generating early MVP buzz if not for San Francisco’s 2-2 record. He enters Week 5 ranked No. 1 in the NFL in both yards per pass attempt (9.3) and 20+ yard completions (18) while teeing up 257 more passing Air Yards than any other QB. As Arizona has yielded the league’s fifth-most fantasy quarterback points, Purdy deserves locked-in QB1 valuation. … Jordan Mason ranks No. 1 in the NFL in carries (91), No. 2 in rushing yards (447), and No. 3 in rushing yards above expectation (120) per Next Gen Stats. The Cards are hemorrhaging 157.3 total yards and 1.5 all-purpose touchdowns per game to enemy running backs. Nursing tendinitis to both Achilles, Christian McCaffrey seems unlikely to return before midseason. Mason is a top-five RB1 for the foreseeable future.

Among tight ends, only Dallas Goedert has outscored George Kittle in PPR points on a per-game basis. On the season, Kittle has caught 15 of 17 targets (88%) for 161 yards and two TDs. … Deebo Samuel didn’t post a big box score in Week 4’s return from a calf injury but looked 100% on the field and should be approached as a WR2 with WR1 upside here. … Brandon Aiyuk paced 49ers wide receivers in Week 4 snaps (50) and routes run (27), and his breakout game still seems inevitable. Fellow WRs Olamide Zaccheaus (6/85/0), Amon-Ra St. Brown (7/75/1), and Terry McLaurin (7/52/1) each beat or met expectations against the Cardinals’ secondary in Weeks 3-4. … With Kittle and Samuel back healthy, Jennings has been reduced to San Francisco’s No. 3 wide receiver and No. 5 offensive option.

Score Prediction: 49ers 34, Cardinals 23

Green Bay @ L.A. Rams

Team Totals: Packers 25.5, Rams 22.5

This is an exciting spot for Jordan Love against a Rams defense allowing the league’s third-highest completion rate (72.6%), most yards per pass attempt (9.1), and second-highest QB rating (122.7). DFS stacks involving Love and Jayden Reed and/or Dontayvion Wicks stand out. … L.A. is being hammered for 4.8 yards per carry and 164.5 total yards per game by enemy backs. Averaging 19.5 touches for 95.3 yards, Josh Jacobs is overdue for a paydirt trip after failing to score in Weeks 1-4. The Rams have allowed five rushing TDs to RBs in four games. … Emanuel Wilson has emerged as a factor behind Jacobs, yet third-round rookie MarShawn Lloyd (ankle, I.R.) is now eligible to play, complicating handcuff matters.

Love’s 2024 targets: Wicks 16; Reed and Romeo Doubs 14; Tucker Kraft 12; Jacobs 9; Christian Watson 6; Luke Musgrave 5; Wilson 4. … Wicks becomes a full-time player for as long as Watson (ankle) hits the shelf. Internally compared to Davante Adams by Packers higher-ups, Wicks flashed playmaking ability in last season’s second half and is obviously a preferred target for Love. The Rams are permitting the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy WR points. … Reed led the Packers in catches (64) and yards (793) on 2023 passes from Love, then dominated with Love in Weeks 1 (4/138/1) and 4 (7/139/1). Reed is a borderline WR1 play. … Doubs has played 34 career regular-season games, never reaching 100 yards. … Out-snapping fellow sophomore Musgrave at an 82% to 39% clip, Kraft is a low-end TE1 play against a Rams defense surrendering the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Matthew Stafford has been a to-date fantasy non-factor with finishes of QB13 (@ DET), QB31 (@ ARI), QB23 (vs. SF), and QB30 (@ CHI) in Weeks 1-4. … The ongoing absences of Cooper Kupp (ankle) and Puka Nacua (PCL) have solidified Kyren Williams as the Rams’ lone proven playmaker and offensive centerpiece; Williams is averaging 21.5 touches per game. Green Bay has been middle of the road in fantasy running back points allowed, but Williams’ reliable workload renders him a matchup-irrelevant elite RB1. Over his last 16 games, Williams has 346 touches, 1,676 yards, and 21(!) touchdowns. … Third-round pick Blake Corum has played zero snaps in three of four games and is running behind Ronnie Rivers.

Jordan Whittington went from L.A.’s No. 4 wideout in Week 3 to the Rams’ No. 1 in terms of targets (8), catches (6), snaps, and routes run in Week 4’s loss to Chicago. Especially with Packers No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (quad/groin) potentially sidelined, the deck is cleared for a Whittington breakout game. … Featherweight deep threat Tutu Atwell ran as the Rams’ Week 4 No. 2 receiver with Demarcus Robinson No. 3 and Tyler Johnson demoted to No. 4. Atwell is a realistic Week 5 sleeper after topping 80 yards in Weeks 3 and 4. … Colby Parkinson is playing nearly every Rams offensive snap but has yet to clear 50 yards in a game and has seen zero targets inside opposing 10-yard lines despite his 6-foot-7 height.

Score Prediction: Packers 30, Rams 20

N.Y. Giants @ Seattle

Team Totals: Seahawks 25, Giants 18.5

Daniel Jones ranks 19th in fantasy quarterback scoring one month in and appears unlikely to have alpha WR1 Malik Nabers (concussion) here. He’s barely two-QB-league playable. This is an attractive spot to fire up the Seahawks’ D/ST. … Bursty rookie Tyrone Tracy will be an exciting RB2 sleeper if Devin Singletary (groin) sits. A former college wide receiver, Tracy runs a 4.48 forty at 5-foot-11/209 and has out-touched No. 3 back Eric Gray 16 to 5 thus far. Seattle has permitted the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. … Nabers’ potential absence should lock Wan’Dale Robinson into lineups in all full-PPR leagues. Robinson commanded 8+ targets in three of New York’s initial four games, and Nabers’ loss would free up nearly 40% of Jones’ usual target allocation. No team in the NFL has allowed more receptions to wide receivers than Seattle (76). … Pass catchers who run their routes beyond the line of scrimmage have little hope with Jones at the helm. On passes of 20+ Air Yards this season, Jones is 2-of-13 passing for 67 yards and an interception.

Less than a handful of quarterbacks opened 2024 hotter than Geno Smith, whose elite pocket navigation and persistent downfield focus almost singlehandedly kept Seattle in Week 4’s shootout loss to Detroit. Fantasy’s QB9 on the year, Smith has earned starter valuation playing with a full supporting cast at home. Only five teams have surrendered a higher opponent passer rating than the G-Men (106.5). … Back from his oblique injury, Kenneth Walker immediately retook lead back duties from Zach Charbonnet last Monday night, out-snapping Charbonnet 53 to 38 and out-touching him 16 to 7. Walker was a game changer against Detroit, totaling 116 yards and three touchdowns. The Giants have played stout run defense to date, but a healthy Walker is always a plugged-in RB2 with RB1 upside.

Geno’s Weeks 1-4 target distribution: DK Metcalf 36; Jaxon Smith-Njigba 33; Tyler Lockett 26; Charbonnet 17; Noah Fant 15; Walker 8; Jake Bobo and A.J. Barner 5. … Exclude his Week 1 trip to Patrick Surtain Island and Metcalf is averaging 7/112.3/0.7 receiving over his last three games. He will dominate burnable Giants No. 1 CB Deonte Banks. … Over Seattle’s last three contests, JSN is averaging 10.3 targets and playing 85% of the Seahawks’ offensive snaps. The Giants have yielded the NFL’s second-most catches to enemy wideouts (71). … Even as he’s settled in as Seattle’s No. 3 receiver behind Metcalf and Smith-Njigba, Lockett has remained effective by leading the team in first-down grabs (14). Lockett is still a fringe WR3/flex fantasy option. … Involved in a three-way TEBC also including Barner and Pharaoh Brown, Fant is scoreless in 24 straight games as a Seahawk.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Giants 13

Sunday Night Football

Dallas @ Pittsburgh

Team Totals: Cowboys 20.5, Steelers 23.5

The Cowboys and Dak Prescott travel to Pittsburgh off 10 days rest following Week 4’s win over a Giants offense that mustered five field goals for their only points. HC Mike Tomlin’s defense wrecked Kirk Cousins (QB31) and Bo Nix (QB28) to begin the year but have since struggled to keep the lid on Justin Herbert (season-high 8.0 adjusted yards per attempt in Week 3) and Joe Flacco (QB14 in three quarters). Prescott sits top-10 in both completion rate (58.1%) and YPA (7.6) under duress even if the Steelers create chaos. … Although Rico Dowdle’s share of RB touches has increased in every game (including his season-high 66.6% mark against the Giants), his perceived seat atop this hierarchy is overblown given Hunter Luepke’s season-highs in carries (4) and routes run (16, 50%), most recently earning two targets (7.6%) to Dowdle’s one (3.8%) — the latter just happened to turn his lone catch upfield for a 15-yard score. To make matters worse, Ezekiel Elliott matched Dowdle in touches (1) inside the 10. Rico qualifies as an RB3 in 12-team leagues despite being better at throwing a football over them mountains. Luepke is the more interesting play in Showdown over Elliott, who may not reach double-digit carries in any appearance for the rest of 2024.

Dallas’ ongoing search for answers on offense included a team-high 30.7% target share and three carries for CeeDee Lamb on Thursday. Josh Downs (7/57/1) was the latest receiver to have his way with Pittsburgh from the slot, where Lamb has run a team-high 88 routes (56%). … Brandin Cooks’ (knee infection) stint on injured reserve naturally elevates Jalen Tolbert in his stead. With a double-digit target share in three consecutive games, Tolbert’s every-down opportunity with an elite QB is enough to warrant FAAB on any Saturday waivers. Cooks can be dropped in season-long leagues. … The team’s WRs room behind Tolbert includes pint-sized special teamer KaVontae Turpin, 2023 seventh-rounder Jalen Brooks (6-foot-1/200), and FCS sixth-rounder Ryan “Super” Flournoy. 31 of Turpin’s 34 routes this year have come from the slot, potentially luck-boxing success while sharing the field with Lamb. Brooks has one career game with 2 receptions. Flournoy intriguingly recorded three catches for 56 yards (Iowa State) and 10 grabs for 96 yards (Kansas State) in his only two starts against FBS opponents. … Jake Ferguson returned from his minor knee sprain with a vengeance, registering 22% and 26.9% target shares in back-to-back starts. Pittsburgh has already given up multiple receiving touchdowns to tight ends (Kyle Pitts, Andrew Ogletree) with lesser roles. Ferguson belongs in the same conversation as Travis Kelce and George Kittle as matchup-agnostic options for fantasy.

Justin Fields’ first game from negative game script resulted in 10/55/2 rushing and only his second career performance with 300 passing yards as the overall QB1 in Week 4. Pittsburgh’s O-line is in flux with LG Isaac Seumalo (torn pectoral) on the mend and RG James Daniels (torn Achilles’) suddenly lost, but Dallas’ injuries including EDGEs Micah Parsons (high-ankle sprain) and DeMarcus Lawrence (Lisfranc, I.R.) are a wash; All-Pro CB Trevon Diggs (ankle) additionally remains questionable. As noted in Pat Thorman’s Snaps and Pace, Pittsburgh’s contests yield the fourth-fewest combined plays and only deliver pace-based upside if the Cowboys’ injury-riddled defense provides a full-scale collapse. … Najee Harris has handled touch counts of 21, 18, 23, and 16 by default due to Jaylen Warren’s (knee) and Cordarrelle Patterson’s (ankle) wounds, converting that opportunity into per-week RB34 stats. Dallas’ front seven (at full strength) infamously leaked massive production to Alvin Kamara (22/180/4) and Derrick Henry (26/174/2), logically forecasting Harris with a season-best on-paper ceiling; his own inability to break tackles (8, 21st) and create yards after contact (17th) is the only roadblock to a top-12 performance. 2022 UDFA Aaron Shampklin projects for C-Patt’s weekly 5.2 touches as Pittsburgh’s RB2. He can be stashed in 14-team leagues in case Harris is injured Sunday night.

Similar to D.J. Moore’s rapport with Fields last year, George Pickens boasts a team-high 26.6% target share (10th) and 12.9-yard depth of target as Pittsburgh’s first-read dominator. His only performance without double-digit fantasy points this year (Week 2 in Denver) had 94 yards and a touchdown negated for penalties. … Outside of Week 3 when he exited early with an eye injury, Van Jefferson has operated as the team’s WR2 with a route on 84% of dropbacks for 36 total yards; third-year slot WR Calvin Austin III leveraged Jefferson’s absence that day into the former’s only performance with more than one catch (and 4/95/1) to date. Austin’s two career receiving scores went for 72 and 55 yards. … Scotty Miller’s three games around Jefferson’s injury resulted in 5, 4, and 5 routes for 0 targets. … Pat Freiermuth has seemingly earned OC Arthur Smith’s trust with an increased 84% route rate the past two games and, on the season, the eighth-highest target share (17.4%) at his position. Already digging into their practice squad for LB depth, Dallas’ defense is bereft of talent capable of containing 6-foot-5, 251-pound Freiermuth. Backup specimen Darnell Washington (6-foot-7/264) has stayed in to block on 45% of his passing snaps but is disguisable in goal-line personnel, where he’s already caught a touchdown from inside the five-yard line this year.

Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Cowboys 17

Monday Night Football

New Orleans @ Kansas City

Team Totals: Saints 18.5, Chiefs 24.5

New Orleans and Derek Carr hit the ground running with 47 and 44 points in their first two games but have since sputtered due to C Erik McCoy’s (groin, I.R.) and RG Cesar Ruiz’s (knee) injuries, pitting Carr under pressure on 37.9% (10th) of his dropbacks (for only 3.2 yards per attempt) compared to his 18.6% duress (30th) through Week 2. Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo leaked a QB2 finish to Lamar Jackson in the season opener (due to Lamar’s 16/122/0 on the ground) but has since terrorized pocket statues (including Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins) for 17.2, 11.1, and 11.2 fantasy points. Carr is a questionable QB2 at Arrowhead. … Alvin Kamara remains the engine of New Orleans’ offense, handling 20+ touches in every appearance including 29 and 26 (with five weekly targets) the past two games. Spags’ front seven has been to war against Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, and J.K. Dobbins (just to new a few) this year and has still held enemy RBs to 3.1 yards per carry (second) and the third-lowest rate (1.9%) of explosive runs. Kamara’s volume at this time will never leave him out of lineups regardless of his on-paper matchup. Kendre Miller (eligible to be activated from injured reserve ahead of Monday) is an intriguing stash for 12-/14-team leagues given Kamara’s workload at age 29.

One of the most condensed pecking orders in the NFL under OC Klint Kubiak, Rashid Shaheed (24.8% target share) and Chris Olave (22.8%) have combined for 47.6% of New Orleans’ targets and 84% of their Air Yards. The WR26 in per-week points, Shaheed has yet to dip below a 20.8% share in any game and remains a locked-in top-36 option. Same goes for Olave, who’s earned 40%, 26%, and 27.7% of Carr’s targets since his Week 1 letdown. … UDFA Mason Tipton (5-foot-9/179) ran 15 of his 40 routes from the slot the past three weeks, where Kansas City’s secondary was dissected by Drake London (5/55/1) and Ladd McConkey (4/62/1) in back-to-back tries. … Taysom Hill’s new rib injury suffered on the other side of his body against the Falcons naturally surged Juwan Johnson to a season-high 71% route rate. He’s the sexier play over Foster Moreau in the interim given the latter’s 77% blocking rate.

Kansas City allowed pressure on 44% (fourth) of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks against the Chargers and remain completely neutral in their weekly pass rate, inching closer to last season’s run-heavy approach following Rashee Rice’s serious knee injury. Mahomes has finished outside the top 12 at his position in nine consecutive games (and 10 of his last 11), garnering QB1 status if only for his name. Justin Fields and Geno Smith, both who are available in a majority of 1-QB leagues, are better starts in a vacuum for Week 5. … The Chiefs’ workhorse (18/74/0) in their first game without Isiah Pacheco (knee, I.R.), Carson Steele lost a fumble on Kansas City’s first drive and was promptly out-touched 16-1 by Kareem Hunt the rest of the way, additionally ceding the team’s only carry inside the 5-yard line to Samaje Perine. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s (I.R., doubtful) debut delayed another week, Hunt projects to see the lion’s share of touches as a top-24 RB. Perine is interesting on one-game slates (assuming reduced ownership) for his increased 37% route participation sans Pacheco against a Saints linebackers room permitting 8.2 per-week receiving points to RBs.

With Rice feared to have torn his right ACL while chasing down an interception, the Chiefs’ new 3-WR set consists of No. 28 overall pick Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Worthy has yet to record an 18% target share in any game but has scored his three touchdowns (including one rushing score) from 54, 35, and 21 yards out. It’s admittedly worth shopping him around in sell-high deals in case he fails to earn a larger share. Even with Rice as a part-time player until the team’s Week 9 bye in 2023, Watson spiked one top-24 (and no top-12) finish from two-wide sets all year. JSS scored a touchdown in Week 3 but laid an egg in the box score (around his 54% route share) after stepping in for Rice from the slot. Neither inspires confidence behind Worthy. Skyy Moore will get the nod in Showdown if Mecole Hardman (knee, questionable) can’t go. … It’s an increasingly terrific spot for Travis Kelce after the 35-year-old reached season-high marks in target share (32.1%) and route rate (91%) in his first game without Rice. Both Luke Schoonmaker (6/43/0) and Dallas Goedert (10/170/0) produced TE1 numbers against DC Joe Woods, and New Orleans has since listed numerous LBs on their injury report. For one-game offerings, note that Noah Gray was targeted on 40% (fourth) of his routes once Rice left the field.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 21, Saints 17