Evan Silva’s Matchups: Buccaneers at Falcons

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Thursday Night Football

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Team Totals: Falcons 22.5, Bucs 21

Fantasy’s QB2 (vs. WAS), QB5 (@ DET), QB27 (vs. DEN), and QB3 (vs. PHI) scorer in Weeks 1-4, Baker Mayfield now visits Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz dome to face HC Raheem Morris’ overachieving Falcons defense, which has held enemy passers to the NFL’s seventh-fewest yards per attempt (6.2) and is one of the healthiest units in the league. In what doesn’t profile as a particularly high-scoring affair, Mayfield is a fringe QB1/2. … The Bucs’ backfield should be considered a near-50/50 split after Bucky Irving handled 11 touches compared to Rachaad White’s 12 in Week 4’s win over Philadelphia, and failed feature back White logged 58% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps, his lowest playing-time share since 2022. On the season, Irving is averaging 5.8 yards per carry versus White’s lowly 2.8 clip. Atlanta’s loss of every-down MLB Trey Andersen (knee) improves Thursday night’s matchup for both White and Irving. Tackle machine Andersen was Week 4’s NFC Defensive Player of the Week. Entrenched in an RBBC, White and Irving remain questionable-ceiling flex options in season-long leagues and probably touchdown-dependent dice rolls in single-game DFS.

Mayfield’s Weeks 1-4 targets: Chris Godwin 34; Mike Evans 29; Cade Otton 21; White 16; Irving 8; Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan 6; Sterling Shepard 5. … Godwin enters Week 5 ranked No. 7 among wideouts in targets, No. 3 in receptions (27), and No. 6 in yards (322). He’s far beyond having earned matchup-agnostic WR1/2 valuation. … Evans appeared on Week 5’s injury report with early-week knee and calf injuries and will likely draw frequent Thursday night coverage from Falcons top CB A.J. Terrell. I’m still locking in Evans as an upside WR2 but monitoring his rest-of-week practice participation. Evans’ Week 4 TD catch against the Eagles placed him 12th on the NFL’s all-time receiving touchdown list (97). He deserves to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. … With No. 3 WR Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and No. 4 WR Trey Palmer (concussion) ruled out for Thursday night, Sterling Shepard is a big-time single-game DFS sleeper. A college monster with Mayfield in 2015 at Oklahoma, Shepard quietly logged a 65% snap rate and five targets in Week 4’s victory. … Otton rarely leaves the field and has collected a combined 17 targets over the past two weeks due to injuries to Bucs sub-package WRs. Otton is a low-upside but viable opportunity-based streamer at fantasy’s weakest position.

Still obviously limited by last October’s Achilles tear, Kirk Cousins enters Week 5 having finished as fantasy’s QB24 or worse in three of his first four games while amassing -2 rushing yards in Weeks 1-4. Bucs HC Todd Bowles’ defense has limited enemy passing offenses to the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per attempt (6.0) and one touchdown pass one month in. This is not an exciting spot to stream Cousins. … Bijan Robinson’s health is fairly concerning after he popped up on Week 4’s injury report with a shoulder injury, logged season lows in touches (11) and playing time (64%) against New Orleans, then appeared on Week 5’s injury report with a hamstring ailment. As Tyler Allgeier is averaging 6.1 yards per carry with a 63% rushing Success Rate versus Bijan’s 4.1 and 51% marks, Allgeier very arguably warrants more work, especially on this short week. I’m keeping Robinson stapled into season-long-league lineups but upgrading Allgeier into flex-viable territory against a Bucs defense missing starting DT Calijah Kancey (calf) and ILB SirVocea Dennis (shoulder, I.R.).

Cousins’ Weeks 1-4 target distribution: Drake London 31; Darnell Mooney 24; Ray-Ray McCloud 22; Robinson 16; Kyle Pitts 15; Allgeier 3. … London has racked up six catches in three straight games and tagged Bowles’ secondary for receiving lines of 10/172/0, 6/54/0, and 6/120/0 in their last three meetings. London warrants low-end WR1 treatment here. … Showing strong on-field chemistry with Cousins, Mooney leads Atlanta in receiving yards (225) and is tied with London for first-down catches (9). Mooney is WR3/flex playable in Thursday night’s indoors environment. … McCloud appeared on nearly 100% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps in Weeks 2-4. He’s a single-game DFS tournament dart. … Fresh off Week 4’s goose egg, Pitts’ participation in the Falcons’ offense has lessened in each game. Going back to last season, Pitts has drawn five targets or fewer in eight straight appearances.

Score Prediction: Bucs 24, Falcons 23