Oil insights with Harry Tchilinguirian | Waiting for Uncle Sam | S1 E11

World of Oil Derivatives

On this episode of Oil Insights, Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian and Research Associates Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu cover the potential implications of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election on the oil market, particularly focusing on foreign policy towards sanctioned countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, as well as key Middle Eastern allies, like Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Looking at sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, for Iran, under Harris, the current containment and loose sanctions are likely to continue, allowing Iran to export around 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude. Trump would likely tighten sanctions, potentially reducing Iran's exports, once again, below 500,000 barrels per day (kb/d). As for Venezuela, limited changes are expected under either administration. However, Trump might be more supportive of oil sector activities, possibly benefiting companies like Chevron operating in Venezuela.

For Russia and Ukraine, Harris is likely to continue the Biden administration’s stance of supporting Ukraine with military aid against Russia. Whilst Trump might be able to broker a solution with Russia, which could possibly lead to the lifting sanctions, allowing more Russian oil to enter global markets.

Harry, Martha and Vincent also discuss U.S. relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia. Whilst both parties support Israel, Trump is seen as having stronger influence over Israel and could broker regional peace talks more effectively.

And as for Saudi Arabia, Trump may have an easier path to re-establish relations and secure increased oil production, whereas Harris may adopt a critical stance.

As for U.S.-China Trade Policy, both candidates hold firm stances on trade with China, but Trump is expected to pursue more aggressive tariffs, which could lead to lower economic growth and thus, weaker global oil demand.

Finally, Harry, Martha and Vincent discuss domestic oil and gas policy. Trump is likely to reduce regulations, promote energy independence, and encourage oil infrastructure expansion, whilst Harris is expected to focus on energy transition policies, potentially slowing U.S. oil and gas production growth through regulatory constraints.

Overall, the episode suggests that the U.S. presidential outcome will have extensive repercussions for oil supply, international alliances, and the global energy market, with each candidate presenting sharply contrasting strategies.

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