A Trumptastic victory

Top of the Morning

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Thursday, November 7, 2024. This is Nelson John, let's get started.

Donald Trump has won the US Presidential election once again, this time with substantial control over the US Senate. N. Madhavan analyses how Trump’s policies are set to trigger economic and political turbulence at home and abroad. His aggressive trade stance—highlighted by proposed universal tariffs and the looming threat of a trade war with China—could destabilize the global trading landscape. On the political front, his plans for mass deportations risk deepening divisions within the US and straining national resources. Madhavan’s in-depth piece explores Trump’s potential policy moves and their far-reaching implications for India and the world.

Following recent lows, Indian stock markets are expected to rebound in the wake of Trump’s victory. Ram Sahgal notes that institutional investors may begin unwinding short positions, fuelling a rally that analysts predict could last about a week. However, much like Trump’s unpredictable policies, the long-term impact of his presidency remains uncertain, with tariffs and inflation likely to be key influences.

Rhik Kundu reports that India’s trade dynamics with the US could face significant shifts under Trump’s administration. With a trade surplus favouring India, Trump's "America First" agenda may lead to higher tariffs on Indian goods, posing challenges for the Indian economy. Key sectors like automobiles and pharmaceuticals are likely to feel the impact most acutely. Additionally, India's IT sector could be affected by potential changes to US visa policies, as Trump is expected to tighten H-1B regulations.

A critical pressure point for the Indian economy remains the rupee's performance against the dollar. In the wake of Trump’s victory, geopolitical uncertainty and trade tariff concerns, especially regarding China, have intensified. Shayan Ghosh notes that the rupee recently hit a record low of 84.28 against the dollar. To counter further depreciation, the Reserve Bank of India, backed by $684 billion in reserves, stands ready to intervene. Analysts suggest that the RBI’s actions could stabilize the rupee, with projections indicating a possible recovery toward the 84 level following initial declines.

Trump's victory is likely to bring significant implications for visas, especially for the millions of Indian IT professionals and students who move to the US each year. The H-1B visa, critical for many, remains a contentious point. Mansi Verma, Devina Sengupta, and Shouvik Das report that while immediate effects may be limited, the true impact will emerge in the coming years as Trump’s policies fully take hold. With Australia and Canada also tightening visa issuance, restrictions in the US could sharply curtail emigration opportunities for Indians.