The Wire - November 21, 2024

S2 Underground

//The Wire//1700Z November 21, 2024//

//PRIORITY//

//BLUF: RUSSIA LAUNCHES POSSIBLE ICBM IN UKRAINE IN LIKELY RETALIATORY STRIKE FOR UKRAINE’S PRIOR ATACMS TARGETING.//

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-International Events-

Europe: Overnight Russia conducted a possible ICBM (or MRBM) attack in the Ukrainian district of Dnipropetrovsk. The exact target of the strike is unknown (nor likely matters much) as multiple munitions were observed to be striking the area from many miles away, possibly indicating the use of Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs). As such, it’s very likely that this strike was more about sending a message rather than its targeting effectiveness in the battlespace. The exact missile used remains unconfirmed, however the payload of each warhead was obviously a conventional munition or an inert training warhead.

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Analyst Comments: Some sources (mostly of Ukrainian origin) claim Russia launched an RS-26 RUBEZH ICBM from Astrakhan, which in the absence of any quasi-reliable information is just as good a theory as any. Other theories suggest it may have been a new experimental Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) so as to have an increased payload capacity. Various unnamed “western sources” have claimed that Russia did not launch an ICBM, and that the strike was carried out by some other experimental weapons platform.

If confirmed to be an ICBM strike, this would mark the first use of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles in combat. Considering this potential, and this new development being outside the scope of normalcy, American officials might do well to change their perspective and re-examine their decisions. It doesn’t make it right, or even moral. But if Russia is willing to use an ICBM in Ukraine, even a conventional one, perhaps a reexamining of the situation might be worthwhile. Generally speaking, when a man uses an ICBM one might be inclined to think he is rather serious. Right now, bureaucrats in Washington are surely reading reports written by some junior analyst, and scoffing at the attack being conducted with conventional (or even training) warheads…completely oblivious to the fact that if this was an ICBM (or even some new MRBM), and one that that had been outfitted with its standard payload, they might not be alive to read that report in the first place.

Speaking more strategically from a prepared citizen perspective, much can be learned from the first non-training use of an ICBM launch. We now have a wealth of data to consider, and the early-warning indicators that this launch was about to take place.

Multiple indicators were present, and observable by the public, over the past 24 hours. Though at the time, none were definitive proof of what was about to happen. American strategic radio traffic on the High Frequency Global Communications System (HFGCS) increased significantly in the hours before the launch, with many radio messages being sent yesterday evening. Seeing as absolutely zero E-4B NIGHTWATCH or E-6 MERCURY aircraft were observed on flight tracking websites…this absence was probably a clue. HFGCS radio chatter usually involves these aircraft, so no aircraft showing up on flight tracking sites could indicates that aircraft were indeed airborne…but flying with their transponders turned off as they would do in a time of war. These airframes are critical components of America’s strategic force, with the main mission of coordinating communications in the event of a nuclear war.

On the other side of the wire, Russian strategic aircraft were also observed to be making slightly abnormal flights. Again, not enough out of the ordinary to be worthy of mention on their own, but in hindsight Russia’s version of their “doomsday” planes were absolutely conducting operations in support of this launch.

All of this points to the challenges of predicting major world events. Cleary, the U.S.