001 | 四年一度的美国轮盘赌又开局了

美轮美换 The American Roulette

【聊了什么 What We Talked About】 美国大选年又来了，我们又憋不住想聊美国政治了。四年一度的大选，如同一场轮盘赌，赌的是美国乃至全世界的命运。共和党初选在即，司法麻烦不断的特朗普依然在民调中遥遥领先，却选择跳过初选辩论；建制派精英和金主们试图带共和党走出特朗普的阴影，无奈选民并不买账；毫无政治经验的“网红”Ramaswamy异军突起，上升势头猛烈。2024年的大选，是不是最终又会是4年前特朗普vs.拜登的重演？

With another U.S. election year just around the corner, we can’t help but take a deep dive into American politics once more. Every four years, it feels like we’re playing a game of roulette, betting on the fate of the United States and even the entire world. In this episode, we survey the current landscape ahead of the Republican primaries: Donald Trump — plagued by legal troubles — continues to lead in the polls. He chose to skip the very first primary debate. On the other hand, the GOP establishment elites and their donors are trying to lead the Republican Party out of Trump's shadow, but voters are not convinced. The politically inexperienced "internet celebrity" Vivek Ramaswamy has risen in popularity unexpectedly and gained a strong momentum. Will the 2024 election ultimately be a replay of four years ago, ending with Trump vs. Biden? Let’s find out.

【会员计划】

美轮美换会员计划上线了！

加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。

会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。

年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year

月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month

微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk

感谢你对美轮美换的支持！

众筹平台链接：

• Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette
• 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

合作投稿邮箱：[e-mail]

【时间轴 Timeline】

• 3:43 2024年共和党初选的时间线和关键节点

• 11:13 共和党主要候选人盘点

• 14:38 力争上游的建制派精英—Ron DeSantis、Mike Pence、Tim Scott和Nikki Haley

• 37:55 异军突起的局外人—Vivek Ramaswamy

• 41:59 被起诉4次的特朗普民调不降反升，共和党选民为何对他不离不弃

• 50:44 跳过辩论的特朗普打的是什么算盘，其他候选人还有机会通过初选辩论翻盘吗？

• 1:01:46 民主党一边拜登可以高枕无忧了吗？RFK Jr.的崛起和小儿子的司法危机会对拜登造成威胁吗？

• 1:07:39 我们不负责任地预测了一下共和党初选以及2024年大选的最终结果

• 3:43 The 2024 Republican primary timeline and key milestones

• 11:13 Overview of the major Republican candidates

• 14:38 Establishment elites aiming high: Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, and Nikki Haley

• 37:55 Outsider rising unexpectedly — Vivek Ramaswamy

• 41:59 Trump is facing four lawsuits, yet his poll numbers continue to rise. Why do Republican voters remain loyal to him?

• 50:44 Why can Trump afford to skip the primary debates? Can other candidates get ahead through these debates?

• 1:01:46 On the Democrats’ side, can Joe Biden afford to sit back and relax? Will the rise of RFK Jr. and his son Hunter Biden’s legal troubles pose a threat to Biden?

• 1:07:39 We made some (irresponsible) predictions about the Republican primaries and the final outcome of the 2024 election

【我们是谁 Who We Are】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。

我们的主播：

• 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子
• Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。
• 曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者。
• 小华：媒体人，美政观察者

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes.

In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.”

Our Hosts:

• 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang)：American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information
• Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer
• 曹起曈 (Qitong Cao): PhD in American political economy, political behavior researcher
• 小华 (Xiao Hua): Media professional, political observer

【拓展链接 The Links】

黑马闪耀，群雄相争第二的诡异局面——简评共和党第一次初选辩论

【支持我们 Support Us】 如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡：

• 众筹平台链接：www.patreon.com/americanroulette
• 合作投稿邮箱：[e-mail]

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

• Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette
• Business Inquiries and fan mail: [e-mail]

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