Abenomics worked, Fed not so much (#579)

JSE Direct with Simon Brown

Market Updates:

• Recent news on Markus Jooste's fine and tragic passing prompts reflection on justice and mental health awareness.
• Telkom's sale of its towers business for R6.75 billion highlights strategic shifts and potential opportunities in the telecom sector.
• Ongoing rise in oil prices raises concerns about inflationary pressures and global economic impacts.

Market Analysis and Insights: Gold's Surge:

• Gold prices hit new all-time highs above $2200, reflecting investor concerns and market sentiment following Jerome Powell's recent statements on inflation and monetary policy.
• Gold mining companies show varied responses, with Pan-African, Goldfields, DRD, and Anglogold Ashanti experiencing gains.

Interest Rates and Economic Outlook:

• Powell's announcement of no immediate rate cuts and a projected total of three cuts for the year signals a cautious approach towards inflation.
• Rising interest rates pose challenges for companies with significant debt burdens, while those with ample cash reserves stand to benefit.

Inflation and Monetary Policy:

• CPI data reflects higher-than-expected inflation rates, prompting speculation about potential rate cuts in South Africa and implications for economic recovery.
• Abenomics, Japan's economic policy experiment, demonstrates the effectiveness of unconventional monetary measures in stimulating growth and combating deflation.

Company Updates and Reflections: Remgro Results:

• Remgro's net asset value growth raises questions about the effectiveness of its management strategy, despite trading at a significant discount.

Remgro has grown its NAV per share by 5% p.a. since 2010. Over the same period, the ALSI TR index has done 12% p.a. If you expect this underperformance to continue (and nothing in their recent capital allocation decisions indicates otherwise), then a fair discount to NAV is…

— Piet Viljoen (@pietviljoen) March 19, 2024

• Contrasting performance with Sabvest Capital highlights the importance of superior returns and effective capital allocation in investment decisions.

Sun International:

• Strong financial results from Sun International underscore challenges and opportunities in the leisure and hospitality sector, amid shifting consumer behaviors and economic uncertainties.