Jack Tame: The RBNZ gave us a taste of what Kiwis really need

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

I fix my entire mortgage in three weeks' time, and find myself with the curious kind of conundrum that most of us with bog-standard family home mortgages couldn't have imagined at any point the last few years.

I waited for the email to land from the Monetary Policy Committee... Speed-read the Reserve Bank's statement and found myself with a simple question: Instead of fixing my mortgage at the end of this month, am I better to roll the dice, float for four weeks and hold out for another cut in November?

50 basis points is a meaningful cut. If you've got a $400,000 mortgage, and you're coming off a 7.2% to the market-leading 5.7% being advertised today... That's a difference of $500 a month.

What's clear from the Reserve Bank's comments though is that, like it was on the way up, the cutting cycle is likely to have disproportionate impacts depending on different personal circumstances as the OCR comes down.

Our economy is groaning. International growth is slowing, and the Middle East conflict has the potential to cause a global oil shock. And with an unemployment rate that lags the cash rate cycle, we could still add the best part of 100 basis points to our unemployment rate.

The Reserve Bank might be cutting faster than they anticipated just a few months ago, but it won't come nearly fast enough for many thousands of New Zealanders who are likely going to lose their jobs over the next few months.

The MPS in November is the last cash rate decision for 2024... And the last for the best part of three months.

My pick for the period between now and then is that the calls for more significant cuts, maybe even to something akin to the neutral cash rate, will only continue to intensify.

Our economy might have a taste of relief but it's crying out for so much more.

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