Artwork

Innehåll tillhandahållet av Hamilton Institute. Allt poddinnehåll inklusive avsnitt, grafik och podcastbeskrivningar laddas upp och tillhandahålls direkt av Hamilton Institute eller deras podcastplattformspartner. Om du tror att någon använder ditt upphovsrättsskyddade verk utan din tillåtelse kan du följa processen som beskrivs här https://sv.player.fm/legal.
Player FM - Podcast-app
Gå offline med appen Player FM !

Dynamics of Some Cholera Models

1:01:22
 
Dela
 

Manage episode 155955997 series 1172274
Innehåll tillhandahållet av Hamilton Institute. Allt poddinnehåll inklusive avsnitt, grafik och podcastbeskrivningar laddas upp och tillhandahålls direkt av Hamilton Institute eller deras podcastplattformspartner. Om du tror att någon använder ditt upphovsrättsskyddade verk utan din tillåtelse kan du följa processen som beskrivs här https://sv.player.fm/legal.
Speaker: Prof. P. van den Driessche Abstract: The World Health Organization estimates that there are 3 to 5 million cholera cases per year with 100 thousand deaths spread over 40 to 50 countries. For example, there has been a recent cholera outbreak in Haiti. Cholera is a bacterial disease caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, which can be transmitted to humans directly by person to person contact or indirectly via the environment (mainly through contaminated water). To better understand the dynamics of cholera, ageneral ordinary differential equation compartmental model is formulated that incorporates these two transmission pathways as well as multiple infection stages and pathogen states. In the model analysis, some matrix theory is used to derive a basic reproduction number, and Lyapunov functions are used to show that this number gives a sharp threshold determining whether cholera dies out or becomes endemic. In the absence of recruitment and death, a final size equation or inequality is derived, and simulations illustrate how assumptions on cholera transmission affect the final size of the epidemic. Further models that incorporate temporary immunity and hyperinfectivity using distributed delays are formulated, and numerical simulations show that oscillatory solutions may occur for parameter values taken from cholera data in the literature.
  continue reading

63 episoder

Artwork
iconDela
 
Manage episode 155955997 series 1172274
Innehåll tillhandahållet av Hamilton Institute. Allt poddinnehåll inklusive avsnitt, grafik och podcastbeskrivningar laddas upp och tillhandahålls direkt av Hamilton Institute eller deras podcastplattformspartner. Om du tror att någon använder ditt upphovsrättsskyddade verk utan din tillåtelse kan du följa processen som beskrivs här https://sv.player.fm/legal.
Speaker: Prof. P. van den Driessche Abstract: The World Health Organization estimates that there are 3 to 5 million cholera cases per year with 100 thousand deaths spread over 40 to 50 countries. For example, there has been a recent cholera outbreak in Haiti. Cholera is a bacterial disease caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, which can be transmitted to humans directly by person to person contact or indirectly via the environment (mainly through contaminated water). To better understand the dynamics of cholera, ageneral ordinary differential equation compartmental model is formulated that incorporates these two transmission pathways as well as multiple infection stages and pathogen states. In the model analysis, some matrix theory is used to derive a basic reproduction number, and Lyapunov functions are used to show that this number gives a sharp threshold determining whether cholera dies out or becomes endemic. In the absence of recruitment and death, a final size equation or inequality is derived, and simulations illustrate how assumptions on cholera transmission affect the final size of the epidemic. Further models that incorporate temporary immunity and hyperinfectivity using distributed delays are formulated, and numerical simulations show that oscillatory solutions may occur for parameter values taken from cholera data in the literature.
  continue reading

63 episoder

Alle episoder

×
 
Loading …

Välkommen till Player FM

Player FM scannar webben för högkvalitativa podcasts för dig att njuta av nu direkt. Den är den bästa podcast-appen och den fungerar med Android, Iphone och webben. Bli medlem för att synka prenumerationer mellan enheter.

 

Snabbguide