U.S. energy production on the rise | Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield Ag News

This week Will and Ben look under the hood of strong U.S. energy production numbers and its impact on ag markets.

Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):

» December 2024 corn up $.01 at $4.10

» December 2025 corn up $.02 at $4.39

» November 2024 soybeans down $.07 at $9.74

» November 2025 soybeans down $.04 at $10.21

» December soybean oil flat at 42.69 cents/lb

» December soybean meal down $13.50 at $304.80/short ton

» December 2024 wheat down $.14 at $5.58

» July 2025 wheat down $.12 at $5.97

» December 2024 cotton down 1.84 cents at 70.36 cents/lb

» December 2025 cotton down 0.77 cents at 72.72 cents/lb

» October WTI Crude Oil down $2.55 at $67.45/barrel

Weekly highlights:

US leading economic indicators came in a little lower than expected. The reading for September was down 0.5% vs expectations of being down 0.3% month over month.

Housing data was mixed on the week. Sales of existing housing was down month over month, while sales of new homes were up nearly 30,000 units month over month and above expectations.

US energy stocks were mixed on the week. Crude oil and gasoline stocks were up 230 and 37 million gallons, respectively- while distillate fuel stocks were down 48 million gallons and ethanol stocks were flat. Gasoline demand was up 2% on the week.

US ethanol production increased for the fourth consecutive week to 318 million gallons- up from 306 million gallons last week and 306 million gallons last year. Ethanol profitability is expected to decline some over the next couple weeks.

Open interest was up for wheats (+3.5%), corn (+6.5%), soybeans (+0.1%), soybean oil (+4.5%), soybean meal (+2.3%), cotton (+2.2%), and rough rice (+2.3%).

Money managers traders were net buyers of corn (15,489) soybean oil (+13,711), soybean meal (+737) and cotton (+6,470) while being sellers of soybeans (-19,233), wheats (-2,061) and rice (-367).

The USDA Cattle on Feed Report for October 1 showed all cattle on feed at 11.6 million head, nearly matching last year’s volume and just slightly ahead of the 99.7% average trade estimate. September marketings were 102% of last year and placements were 98.1% compared to estimated of 102% and 96%, respectively.

Weekly export sales of US grains and oilseeds were relatively bullish on the week. Corn sales of 142 million bushels were above all pre-report estimates and the largest since April 2021. Soybean and wheat sales were strong at 79.1 and 19.6 million bushels, respectively. Cotton sales of 180,000 bales were the largest in nearly 2 months.

Weekly grain and oilseed expectations were down week over week for corn, soybeans, milo, and combined wheats but still supportive. Shipments were 32.4 million bushels for corn, 88.0 million bushels for soybeans, 0.127 million bushels for milo, and 9.1 million bushels for combined wheats.

Corn and soybean harvest is now 81% and 89% complete, respectively. Corn was slightly ahead of 80% expectations while soybeans was slightly behind the 91% expectations.

Winter wheat planting was 80% complete on the week vs expectations of 83%. The winter wheat conditions ration is 38% good to excellent vs 47% estimated.

Topics:

» Market recap

» Energy production

» Strong export numbers

» International production snapshot

» Reports to watch

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