This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the outlook for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the job market, housing, and global markets. The chances of a future interest rate cut by the Fed have increased – what factors have led to this change? Yields on fixed income have gone down; how might they react to another interest rate cut? We als…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer, markets, expectations, and the cost of money. Total retail sales exceeded $700 Billion in October. Are these high sales due to the upcoming holiday season? Have credit card debt delinquencies increased as a result of higher consumer spending? House prices have yet to retreat, despite highe…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the post-election economy, changes in the mortgage market, and the future of deficit spending. Jobless claims remain consistent year-over-year, and the personal savings rate has normalized. Regarding wages and salaries, they have been decreasing year-over-year. Are consumers concerned that inflation wi…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we assess housing affordability, sales, mortgages, household cash on hand, and China’s demographics. Housing affordability is near a record low. How much would home prices have to decrease, or household incomes need to increase for affordability to return to the levels seen in the 2016-2019 markets? Total money-ma…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore the levels of credit card debt, interest income, and relative insurance premiums across the United States. You may have seen news about credit card balances reaching an all-time high. However, did consumer credit card spending increase or decrease. What are the current levels of delinquencies on credit …

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we delve into existing home sales, the current and projected federal funds rate, and the implications of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Existing home sales are trending downward - will the recent interest rate changes improve affordability for home buyers? How might these rate decreases impact the refinance market? As…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate consumer spending, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, and household income and mortgages. Consumer spending has slowed compared to the post-COVID highs, and we’ve observed a recent deceleration in student loan repayments. Is this a sign of consumer concern? Regarding income, U.S. households have see…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the current state of employment, housing affordability, and U.S. Markets. Hiring has slowed since the post-covid highs. Are employed individuals at risk of losing their job? Is there evidence to support potential layoffs? On the housing front, affordability remains low due to factors such as pricing, co…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer debt and the pending economic slowdown. Credit Card and HELOC balances have ticked up over recent months, but despite this, there has been limited delinquency in student loans, mortgages, and HELOCs. Auto loans and credit cards on the other hand have shown a slight uptick in delinquencies. What…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore unemployment, housing, and the federal budget. Regarding employment, the JOLTS three-month moving averages are trending downward. Additionally, permanent job losers and persons completing temporary jobs increased by 1.4% in July. If this figure reaches 2%, what might it indicate for the economy? In othe…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss housing, the Federal Reserve interest and Federal funds rate, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Federal funds rate is currently higher than all main U.S. inflation measures. Is the cost of money greater than inflation by design? In other news, per the CPI Primary Shelter measure, rents continue to…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore the broader economic indicators, such as U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), employment, and housing and vacancy rates. Overall U.S. GDP growth has slowed as a comparison of 2023 to 2024 quarter one readings. When might we see negative GDP growth? Will there be a recession? Government employment has rece…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss payroll and job openings, market valuations, and foreign demand in U.S. markets. The rate of U.S. job openings has dropped from its post-Covid peak. Is this a negative event or normalization in the job market? In other news, there is a large disparity between the S&P 500 market capitalization as a compa…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore wages, housing prices and mortgages, and the U.S. financial conditions. The U.S. average hourly earnings report for May came in with a reading of 4%. Why are year-over-year wages still high? What would lowering rates do for wages? As for housing, renters are not experiencing an increased burden regardin…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer confidence, mortgage rates, and U.S. Markets. The May consumer confidence index report shows a higher than anticipated reading. Who is typically surveyed for the consumer confidence index report? As for interest rates, the Federal Reserve Board forecasts rates to decrease to 4% in the next two …

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate employment, currency, and the importance of Natural Gas as a U.S. export. The recent job openings report shows a continued trend downward. What does this tell us about the trajectory of the U.S. economy? In other news, the U.S. dollar index continues to strengthen. How do global payments denominated in…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss personal interest expense and changes in household debt. What category has the highest percent change from 2023? New home sales have slowed due to higher interest rates, but what does this mean for delinquency rates? Federal net interest outlays are climbing higher in amount as compared to historical da…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we monitor the increased consumer spending in tandem with rising delinquencies on mortgages. Is the Federal Reserve going to consider any rate hike movement before year-end? Consumers are still flooding into the stock market, alongside money flowing into money market bond funds. U.S. goods imported have remained s…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the good news for consumers and bad news for the Federal Reserve. Spending on new manufacturing construction projects has increased. Does this emulate a contracting or expanding economy? How will the Federal Reserve react to the ISM Survey and Manufacturing data? Home prices are at a stabilization point…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore where the economic slowdown is coming and where it is not. Household credit card debt has increased over the past few years. The outstanding interest payments for non-mortgage debt even caught up with mortgage interest payments. Does this emulate a struggling consumer? Have consumers gone delinquent? Mo…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we assess household net worth and assets, commercial real estate, and the Dollar. The U.S. consumer has a strong balance sheet; specifically, with checking and savings. What does that mean for overall market exposure? The trade-weighted dollar continues to drive upwards and proving to still be a strong dollar. Wha…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the various levels of Consumer debt and trends in the Market. Recent news has shown the appearance of layoffs in the market, but overall layoff numbers continue at 1%. Are we in crisis mode in the labor market? U.S. Household Debt has risen; however, most is held in Mortgage debt. Is the increased cons…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor, debt and where the strain is starting to show. The U.S. debt levels are trending lower after recent infusions during the pandemic and reaching pre Covid levels relative to GDP. Should debt levels be a top priority? Unemployment continues to stay in the 3% range. Will unemployment claims increase …

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to evaluate the flood of new data. Inflation is still trending lower, and the job market continues to be close to full employment. Will the Fed engineer a soft landing? Mortgage rates are also trending lower; however, housing inventory remains at all-time lows. When will things change? Tune in to learn…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we talk about some important economic data. GDP estimates continue to be above trend and unemployment remains low. However, the Fed seems to be content with inflation data trending lower and many are speculating on future rate cuts. How will this impact the stock and bond market in 2024? Tune in to learn more! Key…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor and financial headwinds. Jobless claims and unemployment remain relatively stable, but how has the labor market changed since 2020 and where will the labor market go from here? Inflation continues to soften, yet as we look to 2024 where do we see potential headwinds to the economy? Tune in to lear…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a variety of economic news. The Fed has one more meeting to round out 2023. All eyes will be on if they continue to hold rates and the impact on unemployment and inflation. In other news, the housing market experienced the lowest number of existing home sales in more than a decade. Will housing prices c…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor and interest rates. With jobless claims and unemployment remaining relatively stable, how have hourly earnings changed since the pandemic and what does this mean for the labor market as we look ahead? As interest rates have risen from previous multi year lows, what does a higher interest rate envi…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss an array of economic news. Consumer spending is still strong and retail sales continue to climb. Even as the Fed raises rates, the housing market has stayed strong, and unemployment remains low. What, if anything, will begin to slow or influence the Fed to lower rates? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeawa…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss some economic hurdles in the system, as well as the budget deficit. Savings rates and new mortgage applications have dropped below pre-pandemic levels, along with an increasing office vacancy rate. What does this mean for the economy as we move into the 4th quarter? The budget deficit has been a main th…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at consumer savings & globalization. Despite strong consumer demand and student loan payments starting back up, household savings remain at pre-pandemic highs. With an everchanging global economy, the US has diversified imports away from China and continues to increase industrial robots when it comes to do…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we address new economic data. CPI jumped month over month, largely due to the increase in oil prices. How will this impact the Fed’s decisions for the rest of 2023? Overall, the economy is moving along, due to a strong consumer. Will the restart of student loan payments change this? Tune in to learn about this and…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at wages and housing. Wage and salary growth has moved back to pre-pandemic levels, with the highest income households seeing the slowest growth, alongside declining job openings numbers. With virtually all rent measures currently on the rise, home prices have also continued to rise despite the recent incr…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to wade through the summer doldrums. The consumer is still spending and enjoying historically elevated home equity values. As the Fed continues to raise rates, yields across the board also rise. Mortgages continue to climb, and longer-term treasury yields slip higher. How long until inflation and the c…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss some key data pieces. From a year ago, inflation has trended lower, unemployment has stayed the same, and treasury yields continue to climb. The Fed is continuing to raise rates as they receive traditionally conflicting data. Is inflation under control and how high do they need to go with the cost of mo…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at the lending market, housing, the Federal Reserve, and other economic data. Lending data is showing delinquencies at record lows, as we prepare for student loan payments to start back up in September. Industrial production in the US has remained high, and with a potential Fed increase of 0.25% in rates a…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at unemployment and personal savings. Unemployment has continued to be a driver for the Fed decisions and after recently ticking back up, the unemployment rate has begun to slide down. What is causing such a robust employment market? With inflation on its slow decline, we are starting to see personal savin…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to look for meaningful changes in the economic data. CPI numbers continue to trend lower as energy and food continue to normalize. Student debt payments have garnered people’s attention as payments could come back online after August. How will this impact inflation? Tune in to learn about this and more…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at several pieces of economic data, including inflation and housing. Inflation continues its slow decline and approaches the Fed Funds target rate, but is it enough to sway the Fed to pause at their upcoming meeting? Median home prices have started ticking upward, mortgage delinquencies are at record lows,…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at an array of economic data, most of it showing signs of a decently healthy economy. The Fed continues to fight inflation with a 0.25% increase next month still on the table. The debt ceiling debate seems to have a resolution as a deal is being finalized. Where will inflation and the Fed’s policy take us …

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at inflation, consumer spending, jobs, and other economic data. With a decline in consumer spending, inflation continues to lower after the most recent 0.25% increase from the FED. Job openings have decreased across a majority of industries, and with the housing market seeing low purchase and refinance act…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at income, housing and other economic data. ISM manufacturing data ticked up a bit, while GDP estimates for Q1 came in lower. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates 0.25% this month as inflation numbers continue to stay above 5%. What will it take to fight inflation and avoid a recession? Tune in t…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a look at the consumer and financial stress in the system. Headline inflation came down year over year in the month of March. Many of the supply side contributors seem to be returning to pre-pandemic levels, however the consumer seems to be staying strong. How will this impact the Fed’s decision making for…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss banking and inflation. Money market funds have seen large inflows over the past 2 months following the issues in the banking industry, but with the Fed’s balance sheet growing as well, what does this mean for the economy going forward? Inflation continues to soften with lower rents and supply chain proc…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the headline news of two bank failures as well as other economic data. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was taken into conservatorship by the regulators and forced the FDIC and Fed to act. How will this impact monetary policy in the coming months? Unemployment was mixed and other data points to inflation conti…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer and inflation. Over the past 2 years we have seen household savings decrease and shelter prices increase, yet we have seen historical wage growth and strong consumer spending. As the Federal Reserve continues its fight against inflation, what does that mean for the consumer and prices as we…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss important economic data. Inflation is trending lower, however it’s uncertain what it will take to achieve the Fed’s 2% target. The housing market continues to soften, and corporate earnings are projected to be lower for 2023. State governments seem to have plenty of funding. Tune in to find out more!Key…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss jobs and the Federal Reserve. Jobless claims continue to decrease and unemployment remains at record lows. With a slowing economy, what will that mean for employment for 2023? The Federal Reserve continues to raise rates with their most recent 0.25% increase in January. Will the data soften enough in 20…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss important economic data. The labor market remains strong even as the Fed raises rates. The housing market continues to soften and corporate earnings per share are projected to be lower for 2023. Will we see a recession this year? Tune in to find out more!Key Takeaways:• 2-year treasury yield remains abo…

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the Federal Reserve. With inflation beginning to soften, and a Federal Reserve meeting upcoming in late January, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve to see what they do next. Will softening data in the housing, labor, and services market be enough to relax the FED, or will they continue to be aggressive…