The UK's Premier Property, Business, Markets & Economics Podcast. With your hosts: Adam Lawrence and Jay Howard. Expert Resident Guests: - Helen Chorley - Piotr Rusinek
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Supplement 17 Nov 24 - Growth, Growth, Oops
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Long term mortgage rates - what’s going to happen now? The real time market and how it is going Growth - or lack thereof The RICS residential market survey Unemployment - why the massive increase? The gilts and swa…
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Supplement 10 Nov 24 - Eyes to '25
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Rates were cut! But did you even notice, with the amount of noise. What does it mean for mortgage rates? The real time market and how it is going The Retail Sales Figures The Halifax House Price Index The PMIs …
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BUDGET SPECIAL Supplement - Rachel Thieves?
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BUDGET SPECIAL - the most awaited economic and property analysis of the UK Budget from my Sunday Supplement on 3rd November 2024 The Budget - Macro, and Property. What will it do to the economy? PLUS: The real time market and how it is going The Bank of England Money and Credit report - mortgages, money supply, rates The Nationwide House Price Inde…
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Supplement 3 Nov 24 - Rachel Thieves?
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Budget - Macro, and Property. What will it do to the economy? The real time market and how it is going The Bank of England Money and Credit report - mortgages, money supply, rates The Nationwide House Price Ind…
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Supplement 13 Oct 24 - Tax, Investment and Efficiency
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Halifax House Price index The RICS house price balance in detail - even the surveyors have woken up GDP Growth for August and September forecasts An annoying week for the gilts but our surprising gap is widenin…
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Adam is interviewed by Anna Clare Harper on "The Return"
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It was a pleasure talking with Anna on her podcast and she's kindly let me share the file here! We covered a lot of ground including: The pros and cons of directly owning residential investments in the current economic and regulatory environment What returns should you be targeting right now, over what timeframe The pros and cons of a ‘passive’ pro…
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Supplement 06 Oct 24 - What a plaque
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Statistical trickery in the housing market and why you shouldn’t trust “guesswork” Nationwide House Price index and the quarterly report The in-the-now performance of the economy in the PMIs and revised growth figu…
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Supplement 29 Sep 24 - Opportunity knocks?
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Real-time market performance and insights as always Retail Sales The in-the-now performance of the economy in the PMIs Business confidence and reality A boring week for the gilts but a surprising gap is opening and…
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Supplement 22 Sep 24 - Spotlights in the wrong places
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*PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX* This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Real-time market performance and insights as always Inflation - and the untold parts that other analysts don’t reach The Bank of England Interest Rate meeting Consumer Confidence and the evaporation (and near wilful dest…
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Supplement 15 Sep 24 - Rights and Wrongs
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*PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX* This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Real-time market performance and insights The Renters’ Rights Bill - the questions and intentions The RICS surveyors survey in detail Growth and Employment in the UK A goldilocks week for the gilts - for the borrowers…..…
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Supplement 08 Sep 24 - The REAL housing problem
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Real-time market performance and insights The follow up on the REAL housing situation - looking backwards, and in real time Halifax's house prices as they accept defeat in their bearish predictions, as quietly as p…
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Supplement 01 Sep 24 - Back 2 Skool
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Real-time market performance and insights The race to sell everything before October 30th is catching on - 2024's pandemic, some might say (or more accurately epidemic) Nationwide's house prices and deeper dive into ene…
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Supplement 25 Aug 24 - The Open Letter
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***PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX*** **EXTRA EFFORT TO REACT COMMENT AND SHARE THIS WEEK PLEASE** This week contains a draft for an Open Letter to Matthew Pennycook, MP - new Minister of State for housing (in case you missed it). The Private Rental Sector needs to engage and be part of the solution - it's as simple as that -…
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***PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX*** This week in the Supplement: A bumper macro week with detailed looks at inflation, growth and (un)employment (and inactivity) The mortgage rates, bonds and swaps as always Hardship tests - a deep dive into the reality rather than the speculation Language, rhetoric and EPC C - and why Ed M…
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Supplement 07 Jul 24 - Starmergeddon?
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week can't avoid the election (of course) and wrap-up but gets down to the business of going forward, as we all need to, in short order: The real-time property market and how the election affected it (or not) The monthly house price indices The PMIs and the state of the economy in …
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Supplement 30 Jun 24 - Hear me roar
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week - the end of the first half of the year! The regular real-time property market insights and my thoughts on those The macro metrics of interest including growth, industry and retail sales The Bank of England's financial policy quarterly meeting analysed with the global picture …
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Supplement 23 Jun 24 - Hold me now
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** 🚨 Breaking Insight! 🚨 "The Bank of England's decision was 'finely balanced' this week, with the potential for an August rate cut looming large. Dive into the latest economic landscape with me, covering key aspects from inflation figures to consumer confidence, and what these mean for th…
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Supplement 16 June 24 - Objects In The Rear View Mirror May Appear Closer Than They Are
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week I get deep into the detail of the major UK economic news of this week: Unemployment - what happened in April and May and what's going on right now. Growth - or lack of it - and what's going on in real time The housing market - the surveyors got very bearish in late May, but is…
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Supplement 09 Jun 24 - Edward Scissorhands
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Recorded LIVE! New format ****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** A week that everyone has been waiting for - not at home, but close to home. The first cut is the deepest, they say - what next? Whose "stairs" look the most realistic to you? Will there be a realisation that the Bank of England really don't care too much about …
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Supplement 19 May 24 - The Bank Uncovered
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX***** This week gets stuck into the detail after the Bank of England quarterly monetary policy report. When will rates go down? Why? Why not faster - or slower? Will they even go down? What's the future, in the near and medium term, of the UK property market, prices, population growth and de…
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Supplement 12 May 24 - One domino at a time
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** One more step along the road we go - one more voter for a cut in interest rates. Still 7-2 in favour of holding. Why? What's going to happen over the next year and more in terms of rates? Should you fix now, and for how long? All this, in detail, with my insights and analysis, contained wi…
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Supplement 05 May 24 - Sideways and slowly upwards
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week tucks into a juicy macro week including the money and credit report (figures on mortgage approvals, the money supply, and consumer credit), house prices according to nationwide, the yields of course and then looks into several ONS "real-time" reports of interest, and the Zoopla A…
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Adam is interviewed by Wendy Whittaker-Large
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Wendy said it best about this highly enjoyable interview: "My guest this week has a vast financial and business background which made his entry into property investing an interesting one! Utilising his understanding and knowledge of the macro economic picture, he has been able to translate all those figures and graphs into meaningful content to hel…
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Supplement 28 Apr 24 - Mixed Signals?
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** An eventful week, particularly in the US which had some impact on the UK markets, as it tends to do. Some very positive macro news about April's economic activity in general, which leads to reports of a stronger economy, that perhaps doesn't need an interest rate cut, I'm afraid. Also this…
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Supplement 21 Apr 24 - Relativity and Absolutism
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****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** Another 5000 word blockbuster - macro events of the week are always meaningful when we have the labour market overview and also the inflation numbers, not that I'm utterly obsessed..... I also get stuck into Friday's speech by Dave Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank, and Hamptons Interna…
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Supplement 14 Apr 24 - An Alternative Perspective on the Rental Market
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This week's Supplement focuses in the Deep Dive section on a report from the Resolution Foundation about rents and their thoughts over the next few years. I challenge a few of the assumptions that they don't seem to have the economic stomach to challenge, although overall I am an admirer of their work and they are simply analysing with respect to t…
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Supplement 07 Apr 24 - Train on the tracks?
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This week faces the poor Halifax House Price Index print head on and challenges the bullish assumptions that I, and a small handful of other commentators, have been making about the market. I get stuck into the Bank of England Money and Credit Report and also the ONS Quarterly Sector Accounts which cover the household finances.…
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Investment choices in the current climate - should you choose social?
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This is an article I wrote for Property Investor News in March 2024. Social housing - my own experience as a landlord and investor - considering social impact as well as commercial viability and opportunity.Av Adam G Lawrence
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Supplement 31 Mar 24 - Happy Easter?
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This week discussed whether indeed it is a Happy Easter or not...... Getting stuck into Zoopla rental reports, Bank of England Financial Stability updates, and the ONS' new index on private rents - PIPR. The direction of travel looks pretty clear.....Av Adam G Lawrence
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Supplement 24 Mar 24 - Downhill all the way?
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This week takes a look at the chance of the remaining property legislation getting through this parliament, and then the macro landscape including a significant inflation writeup. Then, the Bank of England's meeting minutes get a full breakdown with my views on where inflation and rates are going over the rest of 2024. The recession is over - long …
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Supplement 17 Mar 24 - Context is Everything!
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Arrears figures released this week started the clickbait mafia machine, whipping people up into a frenzy. Fuss about nothing? If you want the truth, have a listen and find out. The macro roundup also gets into unemployment and growth figures, alongside what the surveyors are thinking and feeling. FCA mortgage data is broken down in detail.…
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Supplement 10 Mar 24 - Damp Squib Budget?
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Jeremy Hunt's budget breakdown in detail! Multiple dwellings relief changes broken down in detail with worked examples Changes to short lets considered and analysed Implications of changes to capital gains tax on property at the higher rate level.Av Adam G Lawrence
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This week gets stuck into the Bank of England credit port and also the Zoopla House Price Index.Av Adam G Lawrence
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Election Survival - what to do in early 2024
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An article I wrote for Property Investor News for February - election survival strategies.Av Adam G Lawrence
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This week gets deep into the detail of the Bank of England's appearance before the Treasury Committee - and as always all the key macro stats and what it all means for the UK Property market. The players involved this week made me think of a soap opera - hence the title. We kick off with a quote by the great Milton Friedman in a week that's reminde…
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Supplement 18 Feb 24 - Recession? What Recession?
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This week goes "so Macro" and tucks right in - with the relevant level of detail - into the story behind the current UK Recession. To say I'm skeptical is an understatement.Av Adam G Lawrence
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Supplement 11 Feb - Let's talk about the yield curve, baby
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This week rounds up a positive reading! After the macro metrics segment, I get into confession about the yield curve and what I do and don't understand.Av Adam G Lawrence
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Supplement 04 Feb 24 - Table Mountain?
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This week I summarise the Bank of England monetary policy Committee meeting including a line by line analysis of the minutes of the meeting. What's the immediate future of the Bank Base rate and resultant interest rates - and why? Listen to find out. There's also a longer inflation discussion - which is needed, because all the useful suspects are g…
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Supplement 28 Jan 24 - Bullish in a China shop
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This week focuses on the macro - as always - and dissects the Hamptons International report on limited company ownership for 2023. I also destroy the politicians hopes and dreams of a working solution for the housing market and provide a suggestion which I think is far better. Not difficult to get over that low bar - but mine might actually work.…
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Supplement 21 Jan 24 - On the Slopes?
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This week steams into a whole pile of macro, followed by some context and a discussion of the current mortgage lending market as far as Buy to Let goes in the UK.Av Adam G Lawrence
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Supplement 14 Jan 24 - Going Overground
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This week's Supplement gets into the Bank of England's blog and what those facing higher mortgage payments have actually done about it - and what they might do going forward. I also cover the macro events and the current mortgage rates - and what I think will be happening to inflation and rates in the near future.…
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Supplement 07 Jan 24 - here we go!
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This week's supplement goes into some Macro meat and then asks a question I don't hear anyone else asking - where are all these people going? What does this all mean for the future of the private rented sector? Most importantly - what and where are the opportunities for 2024?Av Adam G Lawrence
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Supplement 31 Dec 23 - On the hill for '24
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The big one - a New Year's Eve extravaganza! The recent Bank of England report on the Buy-to-Let sector dissected in significant detail - what does the Bank really think about what's been going on? Is this just another absolution of their responsibilities around the cost of housing and shelter - or simply a fair statement and leaves what should be …
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Supplement 24 Dec 23 - The Grinch!
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This week rounds up an amazing fortnight in the international bond markets with rates tumbling. Get out the bunting and the free money bus is back on the road, right? Wrong. Listen carefully for the good news and also the likely outcomes for 2024!Av Adam G Lawrence
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Supplement 17 Dec 23 - The Eve of the Eve
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This week's supplement goes deep into employment figure detail and discusses the main factors driving interest rates downwards in the best week the markets have had for some time as far as property investors are concerned! Also some analysis on the Zoopla rental report and some 2024 predictions for rent growth and capital growth.…
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Supplement 10 Dec 23 - Was it right to raise interest rates and Financial Stability of the UK
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This week goes deep into the detail of the Financial stability report from the Bank of England and also answers the question on whether it has been correct to use interest rates to control inflation that was effectively imported.Av Adam G Lawrence
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Supplement 03 Dec 23 - RIP Charlie, budget forensics, inflation and a rant!
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Another goliath supplement this week in a meaningful week in investment and macroeconomics. Starting to build the picture for 2024......Av Adam G Lawrence
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Supplement 26 Nov 23 - Budget Breakdown/Takedown
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Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy. Time to talk about the truth and the untruth in the statement in my typical line-by-line style. Lots to mull over but overall he's fired all the bullets he can until next time out. Clever politicking overall, although not entirely honest.Av Adam G Lawrence
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Supplement 19 Nov 23 - Turning Point?
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This week goes deep into the detail of recent inflation news - including the likely drivers of holding inflation up above the 3.5% level throughout 2024. What does that mean for next year's property market? Find out today and over the next few weeks.....Av Adam G Lawrence
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Propenomix meets Property Entrepreneur
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Fantastic conversation with Dan Hill from Property Entrepreneur - we go well beyond Property to talk around some of the broadest subjects out there. Enjoyed it a lot - drop some feedback if you'd like to see or hear more like this!Av Adam G Lawrence
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